Why Marijuana Stock Aurora Cannabis Popped 21.9% in March – Motley Fool

Why Marijuana Stock Aurora Cannabis Popped 21.9% in March - Motley Fool
Aurora Cannabiss Valuation Compared to Its Peers
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Shares of Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) surged nearly 22% last month, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, after the Canadian marijuana company received bullish analyst commentary and announced the appointment of a new strategic advisor.

On March 5, investment firm Cowen named Aurora Cannabis its top pick in the marijuana industry and gave it a $10.50 price target. Cowens analysts highlighted Auroras leading production capacity and broad international presence. 

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“The companys large cultivation footprint, capable of producing over 575,000 kg, provides ACB with the necessary infrastructure to weather early storms in adult use while continuing to grow higher-value revenues in the medical market,” Cowen said in its report. 

Then on March 13, Aurora announced that it had appointed billionaire Nelson Peltz as a strategic advisor. Peltz will help Aurora “explore potential partnerships that would be the optimal strategic fit for successful entry into each of Auroras contemplated market segments,” the company said in a press release. 

Peltzs history as an activist investor and contacts within the consumer goods industry could finally help Aurora find the partner its been searching for. A partnership with a major consumer goods company could inject much-needed capital into Auroras coffers. It would also help to place it on more equal footing with peers like Canopy Growth and Cronos Group, which have already partnered with beer and tobacco giants Constellation Brands and Altria, respectively.

Still, the possibility of a new partnership may already be priced into Auroras stock to some extent. As of today, Auroras shares are already up 77% so far this year. 

Investors also appear to be growing increasingly excited about the moves Aurora is making to boost its production capacity, and, therefore, its future profit potential. Moreover, international expansion and an eventual move into the U.S. hemp market could serve as additional growth catalysts for Aurora Cannabis in the quarters ahead.

Dilution remains a concern, but that hasnt stopped Aurora Cannabis from delivering incredible returns to investors in recent years.

All told, an investment in Aurora Cannabis comes with plenty of risk, but this Canadian producer is likely to remain one of the more intriguing growth stories within the booming marijuana market in the years ahead.

If you’re asking the question, “what is Wall Street smoking these days?”, you’re not alone. But if it’s green you’re after, look no further than the price charts of this trio of marijuana stocks. Let me explain.

With a gravity-defying broader market now approaching all-time-highs off late December’s almost ubiquitous corrective bottom, it’s enough to give pause to even the most ardent and die-hard bullish investors. Then there are marijuana stocks.

The budding field of marijuana and cannabis are of course poised for huge secular growth. Surging demand for both medicinal and recreational products amid increased legalization — plus in-tow social acceptance and more cleaver and easy ways to enjoy those substances that would leave Cheech and Chong and Jeff Spicoli scratching their heads— are a big business opportunity to say the least.

Still, as with any new trend which has caught a nice buzz from Wall Street’s sell-side promoting dreamy and easy-going path to profits, the reality is there will be very volatile winners and losers in cannabis stocks. Bearing that in mind, let’s separate the chaff from the wheat or in this case, the bull from the bear and explore three marijuana stocks.

My first of two marijuana stock buys are shares of Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB). ACB stock is on InvestorPlace’s Josh Enomoto’s short list of cannabis buy recommendations due to the company’s smart-looking acquisition strategy that’s helping leverage its position within the medicinal side of the business.

On the price chart I’m inclined to digress with Josh regarding an inevitable correction in ACB stock after rallying about 70% on the year. Unlike a marijuana stock like Cronos (NASDAQ:CRON) or Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) which have seen big gains in 2019; ACB stock’s big picture shows a name that’s done a good deal more work consolidating its gains in a very large base.

As we can see on the weekly view of Aurora Cannabis, shares are actually trading below where they were kicking off 2018. That’s interesting, but not necessarily bullish. What’s making the case for seeing higher prices in ACB stock are back-to-back corrections which have formed a slightly-irregular “W” or high-level double-bottom pattern.

With this marijuana stock now consolidating quietly in a small three-week long handle pattern wedged in-between the 50% and 62% retracement levels, it’s time to consider going long ACB stock.

My recommendation is to buy shares above $9.48 as ACB stock takes out the high of the formation’s weekly doji from two weeks ago.

I expect an upside resolution out of the handle will lead to a quick challenge of last fall’s all-time-high of $12.53. But to avoid any potential, “what was I smoking” situations, using a stop loss beneath the doji low makes good sense from both a money management and technical perspective.

Scotts Miracle-Gro (NYSE:SMG) is an old-school, household name best known for its lawn and gardening products. But in today’s budding grass market, Scotts is also the industry’s largest hydroponics supplier and my second buy recommendation.

Scotts was actually given the green thumbs-up of approval by this strategist about three weeks ago. The cannabis stock’s pick-and-shovels position for capitalizing on industry growth, fundamentals that don’t require smoking any product to appreciate their value, as well as a nicely-positioned SMG stock chart were ‘nearly too much to resist.’

Fortunately, an above-the-market entry never triggered immediately in front of a fairly significant single session smoking of nearly 6% with no news to account for the bullish buzz-killer. But shares of this cannabis stock did recover nicely off 38% support established over 2018’s large correction.

Now with SMG stock challenging the 50% line once more, I’m seeing this glass as only half full on the price chart. The technical outlook is Scotts Miracle-Gro shares are in position to break out to new highs for 2019 and eventually challenge the all-time-highs set in January 2018.

The recommendation for going long this marijuana name is to be ready to purchase shares once again above $83.23. I’d suggest an initial blended stop-loss below $79.75 to keep exposure minimized off and on the price chart.

I’m reminded of the saying, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, shame on both of us” when looking at the price chart of CGC. And there’s good reason for looking at this marijuana stock a bit differently than in days past.

In January shares of the Canadian-based marijuana outfit failed to break out successfully from a handle consolidation. Then to make matters worse, CGC stock tried to rally out of larger triangle pattern only to fail yet again. Both occasions got the better of my enthusiasm for this marijuana stock.

Should I have seen it coming? Maybe. More importantly, it’s time to respect this marijuana stock’s bearish offenses have occurred despite enviable supports like a strategic partnership with beverage giant Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) and the type of growth that should make bulls salivate.

As mentioned, the marijuana industry is going to have losers and winners. And with one-time market cap leader Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) already looking like a technical casualty, that reality is a wake-up call. It’s suggesting CGC, notwithstanding its good looks off the chart, could be another high-profile victim.

My recommendation is short this marijuana stock below $42 as shares are breaking beneath flag support. I’d give this position some room with an initial stop-loss above $46.50. That represents a recovery back above the 62% level and through the apex of the triangle.

On the downside, given the failures CGC stock could be on its way towards forming a large double-bottom base that could challenge the December low near $25. And if history does repeat or simply rhymes, last fall’s triangle is a reminder of what a tasty edible for bears can look like.

Disclosure: Investment accounts under Christopher Tyler’s management do not currently own positions in any securities mentioned in this article. The information offered is based upon Christopher Tyler’s observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only; the use of which is the responsibility of the individual. For additional options-based strategies and related musings, follow Chris on Twitter @Options_CAT and StockTwits.


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