Aurora Cannabis stock surges ahead of Q3 results after the close – MarketWatch

Aurora Cannabis\ stock surges ahead of Q3 results after the close - MarketWatch
3 Things You Can Expect with Aurora Cannabis Q3 Earnings
Shares of Aurora Cannabis Inc. ACB, +5.22% ACB, +4.89% shot up 5.6% in morning trade Tuesday, to bounce off a two-month low ahead of the Canada-based cannabis companys fiscal third-quarter results due out after the close. The stock has lost 9.7% over the previous five sessions, while the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF MJ, +2.74% has shed 8.4%. After fiscal second-quarter results, in which Aurora swung to a wider-than-expected loss despite greater-than-forecast growth in revenue, the stock fell as much as 7.1% intraday before recovering to close unchanged. The company is expected to report a loss of 5 cents Canadian per share, after a loss of 4 cents a year ago, while revenue is expected to increased 4-fold to C$67.5 million ($50.1 million). Auroras stock has lost 6.7% so far this month, while the Alternative Harvest ETF has lost 6.1% and the S&P 500 SPX, +1.39% has shed 3.7%.

Aurora is scheduled to report its third-quarter earnings after the market closes on Tuesday. This time around, the company didnt give an early look at what might be in its numbers. But here are three things that you can expect with its Q3 results.

Scotiabank analysts Oliver Rowe and Ben Isaacson say that the Canadian cannabis industry is experiencing “teething pains” that could weigh on the sales of major producers early in 2019. But you can expect Aurora to report strong revenue growth in Q3, probably in the ballpark of $68 million Canadian ($50.7 million).

Chief corporate officer Cam Battley said in the companys Q2 conference call that “we expect to see a further increase in product available for sale for fiscal Q3.” He also mentioned that the percentage of revenue from extracted products — which command higher prices — should increase.

Perhaps more importantly, CFO Glen Ibbott was asked in the last quarterly conference call how things were looking for Aurora in January and February. He didnt provide any details but did state that “we certainly havent slowed down at all in terms of our production and shipments.”

Its possible that Aurora wont meet analysts expectations. But all the signs point to another strong quarter for the companys top line.

Aurora posted an ugly net loss of CA$237.8 million in the second quarter. However, around CA$190 million stemmed from adjustments on the companys derivative investments. That still left Aurora with a significant net loss. You can expect considerable improvement on Auroras bottom line in the third quarter, though.

The continued growth in revenue will certainly help. Aurora should also be on track to lower its operating costs, especially with its Aurora Sky facility fully operational. However, the companys sales and marketing expenses are still likely to rise as it expands its presence in international medical cannabis markets and continues to support its rollout in the Canadian adult-use recreational market.

Its pretty much a foregone conclusion that Aurora will post yet another loss. Analysts expect a net loss of around CA$0.04 per share. But the companys bottom line should trend in the right direction. Aurora could even generate positive EBITDA beginning in the fourth quarter, which runs from April to June 2019.

The easiest prediction to make for Auroras Q3 is that the company will have a lot more cash on hand. Aurora reported CA$46.8 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2018. Even with the company continuing to burn through cash to fund operations, the total will definitely be higher in Auroras Q3 results thanks to a convertible senior note offering in January.

Aurora raised gross proceeds of US$345 million from this convertible senior note offering. The company stated at the time that it planned to use the money to support its expansion efforts (including future acquisitions) and for “general corporate purposes.”

The good news about this transaction is that it puts Aurora in a solid financial position for the near term. The bad news is that, because of the ability of noteholders to convert the notes to shares down the road, it means that even more share dilution is on the way.

Its probably too soon for investors to expect many details on how Auroras efforts to secure partners outside the cannabis industry are going. The company brought a billionaire investor on board as a strategic adviser earlier this year to help facilitate discussions with potential partners. However, its likely that Aurora will want to keep any information about these discussions private until theyre farther along.

Aurora might share more details about its plans for expansion into the U.S., particularly in the U.S. hemp industry. But dont be surprised if management remains quiet on that front also. In Auroras last quarterly conference call, CEO Terry Booth seemed reluctant to discuss the companys strategy. Its possible — and perhaps even probable — that Auroras U.S. plans dovetail with its partnering strategy. 

Finally, you shouldnt expect huge international sales for Aurora, either. But international medical cannabis markets will be a big part of the companys future. Management will likely talk quite a bit about how the company plans to capitalize on its significant international prospects, especially in Europe and Latin America.

Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Posted in Aurora