Report: Allen Robinson to sign with Chicago Bears

The last time a Bears wide receiver had over 100 targets, over 900 yards and over five touchdowns? That would be 2014, when Alshon Jeffery posted up as a big-bodied outside target to help carry the offense.

In the three years since the Chicago offense was laughable thanks to a reeled-in, conservative gameplan under the order of coach John Fox. Hes since been canned, fresh offensive thinker Matt Nagy is his replacement, and now the squad hopes Allen Robinson can do what Jeffery did in 2014 as the No. 1 receiver patrolling the outside.

Does Allen Robinson make the Bears playoff contenders?

Based on opportunity, Robinson should do okay. Based on downside and a lack of efficiency, Robinsons most realistic projection shows him falling short of 1,000 yards.

Chicagos offense figures to go the way of Philadelphias – more aggressive and less identifiable. A healthy mix of Nagys West Coast offense and offensive coordinator Mark Helfrichs spread offense (just like the one Trubisky ran at North Carolina) should keep defenses on their toes. But it will also lead to Trubisky dialing up passes for several different players. Robinson might get more targets than his teammates, but new tight end Trey Burton, second-year burner Tarik Cohen, reliable receiver Cameron Meredith (whos coming off a torn ACL himself) and tight end Adam Shaheen, a physical beast, are certain to be regulars. Trubisky also has a tendency going back to his collegiate days to lean on the slot, a place where Robinson lined up just 17 percent of the time in 2015 and 2016.

Robinson had a strong training camp last year and looked like he would be an integral part of the offense. But he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee on Jacksonville's third play of the season and had surgery the following week. The Jaguars went on to win the AFC South and advance to the conference final.

It likely makes the 9.4 targets per game Robinson averaged with the Jaguars in 2015 and 2016 unattainable. But he shouldnt fall too far from it – an 8.0 per game target average would put him on pace for 126 throws over 16 games.

The 2015 Pro Bowl selection said he intends to sign a three-year, $42 million contract when free agency opens on Wednesday. Robinson was impressed by new Bears coach Matt Nagy, saying "I like what he did" as offensive coordinator with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Robinsons catch rate is another concern. That number in Jacksonville was 52.6 percent, though to be fair that was with Blake Bortles. Trubisky should be at the very least a small upgrade at quarterback for Robinson, pushing the receivers projected catch rate up. Even if it jumped to 55 percent, it means 70 catches for Chicagos newest Bear. Good, but not great.

The biggest issue is his receiving average. Robinson nailed down 1,400 yards in 2015 thanks to 17.5 yards per catch. Throwing out his one-game, three-catch 2017 “season,” Robinson has had under 15 yards per catch in every other campaign hes played going back to his last two years at Penn State. His speed could also be affected by his ACL injury, though thats a factor we wont know for several months. A projection of 13.0 yards per catch might be considered generous, but were putting some faith in Nagys playcalling and Trubiskys ability to make it happen.

Chicago fired coach John Fox after going 5-11 and finishing last in the NFC North for the fourth straight year. The Bears have missed the playoffs 10 of the past 11 seasons and have not finished with a winning record since 2012.

We saw Robinson score 14 times in 2015… and just six in 2016. While that kind of inconsistency might lead to heartburn, it should please you to know that 18 of Robinsons 20 touchdowns were red-zone grabs. His elite-trait route-running ability combined with a more accurate passer should result in a good dose of scores. Six seems low and eight (one every two games) seems high, so well settle on seven.

Robinson has missed 21 games in four seasons, though Jaguars coach Doug Marrone said at the NFL scouting combine he is "right on schedule" in his recovery from the torn ACL.

Allen Robinson signs to become the highest-paid Nittany Lion ever

Early projection: 126 targets, 70 receptions, 910 yards, seven touchdowns.

The yardage and touchdown totals would put him close to the stats JuJu Smith-Schuster had in 2017. He finished as the No. 18 receiver in non-PPR Fantasy leagues with 126 points. If we were to add 70 points to that tally then the 196 points would result in a finish akin to Mike Evans 20th-ranked finish in 2017.

A new friend: Get acquainted with Allen Robinson with the help of Big Cat Country

What does it mean? Robinson should be drafted as a low-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver. Round 5 in non-PPR and late Round 4 in PPR formats should do the trick.

If he goes before then, its because someones buying into him being closer to that 2015 form that put him on the Fantasy map in the first place. Just remember, hes had a down year, an ACL tear and a new contract from a new team since then. Given those facts, it might be too big a leap of faith to count on a huge year for Robinson.

Dave Richard has spent nearly his entire career covering the National Football League. Beginning with at the boom of the Internet, Richard was that sites first Fantasy Football writer before transitioning… Full Bio

Allen Robinson is on his way to Chicago, but another Jaguars wide receiver will be staying in Jacksonville.

According to multiple reports, Marqise Lee will sign a new deal with the Jaguars ahead of the official start of free agency on Wednesday.

Lee joined Robinson as a second-round pick in 2014 and got off to a slower start than his teammate while missing nine games over his first two seasons. Lee’s productivity has picked up over the last two years, however, and he led the team with 56 catches during the 2017 season. He added seven catches for 69 yards in the postseason.

Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole and Allen Hurns are also under contract at receiver for the Jaguars,

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