Allen Robinson is fine. But the Bears really needed Sammy Watkins.

The last time a Bears wide receiver had over 100 targets, over 900 yards and over five touchdowns? That would be 2014, when Alshon Jeffery posted up as a big-bodied outside target to help carry the offense.

In the three years since the Chicago offense was laughable thanks to a reeled-in, conservative gameplan under the order of coach John Fox. Hes since been canned, fresh offensive thinker Matt Nagy is his replacement, and now the squad hopes Allen Robinson can do what Jeffery did in 2014 as the No. 1 receiver patrolling the outside.

The Orchard Lake St. Marys product says he intends to sign a three-year, $42 million contract when free agency opens.

Based on opportunity, Robinson should do okay. Based on downside and a lack of efficiency, Robinsons most realistic projection shows him falling short of 1,000 yards.

Day: Robinson is a tough, physical guy. Hes an excellent route-runner, he can win 50-50 balls, and he can make back shoulder catches along the sideline with ease. Any receiver who can excel with Blake Bortles as his quarterback is a good player. Any team who adds Robinson to their team is looking to do two things: go more vertical in the middle of the field and become more efficient in the red zone. In the first 80 yards, Robinson will play outside. Hell command extra attention and it will help your run game. In the red zone, especially when youre within the 10-yard line, look for Robinson to be your slot guy and the quarterbacks first read. Thats how he was used in 2015 and 2016, and he succeeded.

Chicagos offense figures to go the way of Philadelphias – more aggressive and less identifiable. A healthy mix of Nagys West Coast offense and offensive coordinator Mark Helfrichs spread offense (just like the one Trubisky ran at North Carolina) should keep defenses on their toes. But it will also lead to Trubisky dialing up passes for several different players. Robinson might get more targets than his teammates, but new tight end Trey Burton, second-year burner Tarik Cohen, reliable receiver Cameron Meredith (whos coming off a torn ACL himself) and tight end Adam Shaheen, a physical beast, are certain to be regulars. Trubisky also has a tendency going back to his collegiate days to lean on the slot, a place where Robinson lined up just 17 percent of the time in 2015 and 2016.

Day: The Jaguars dont value the wide receiver position anymore. Its that simple. They used their first two draft picks last year to bolster their run game, theyre signing Andrew Norwell tomorrow, and theyre letting Robinson and Marqise Lee go to save cap room so that they can continue to build around the run. Theyre taking the offense out of Bortles hands even more than they did last year (which is totally fine by me). Id instead rather upgrade quarterback through free agency and the draft. It seems this front office has a modus operandi of Blake is our quarterback, how do we win with him?

It likely makes the 9.4 targets per game Robinson averaged with the Jaguars in 2015 and 2016 unattainable. But he shouldnt fall too far from it – an 8.0 per game target average would put him on pace for 126 throws over 16 games.

Day: I think hes going to do really, really well, honestly. I think Chicagos run game is good enough to not be ignored by opposing defenses, but I do worry about Trubisky. That Bears passing game was pretty bad last year. Some of that is due to Kendall Wright being your best receiver (gross): but is Trubisky better than Bortles? He wasnt last year. If Trubisky is able to improve in his sophomore season, I think Robinson will be fine.

Robinsons catch rate is another concern. That number in Jacksonville was 52.6 percent, though to be fair that was with Blake Bortles. Trubisky should be at the very least a small upgrade at quarterback for Robinson, pushing the receivers projected catch rate up. Even if it jumped to 55 percent, it means 70 catches for Chicagos newest Bear. Good, but not great.

Day: It was a little bit of everything. Robinson didnt look 100 percent in 2016, Bortles played really poorly, and the run game sucked. Defenses were able to play the pass because the run game was going nowhere. The coaching staff was also directionless with Gus Bradley at the helm and I think he could have benefited from a head coach with some vision like the Jaguars have in Doug Marrone.

The biggest issue is his receiving average. Robinson nailed down 1,400 yards in 2015 thanks to 17.5 yards per catch. Throwing out his one-game, three-catch 2017 “season,” Robinson has had under 15 yards per catch in every other campaign hes played going back to his last two years at Penn State. His speed could also be affected by his ACL injury, though thats a factor we wont know for several months. A projection of 13.0 yards per catch might be considered generous, but were putting some faith in Nagys playcalling and Trubiskys ability to make it happen.

It was known that fixing the wide receiver position was going to be emphasized this off-season, and the Bears went all out in signing the best free agent available. Robinson, who led the NFL in receiving touchdowns in 2015, gives them a true No. 1 target for Mitchell Trubisky to throw to.

Former Pro Bowl WR Robinson Says Hes Signing With Bears

We saw Robinson score 14 times in 2015… and just six in 2016. While that kind of inconsistency might lead to heartburn, it should please you to know that 18 of Robinsons 20 touchdowns were red-zone grabs. His elite-trait route-running ability combined with a more accurate passer should result in a good dose of scores. Six seems low and eight (one every two games) seems high, so well settle on seven.

Allen Robinson signs to become the highest-paid Nittany Lion ever

Early projection: 126 targets, 70 receptions, 910 yards, seven touchdowns.

The yardage and touchdown totals would put him close to the stats JuJu Smith-Schuster had in 2017. He finished as the No. 18 receiver in non-PPR Fantasy leagues with 126 points. If we were to add 70 points to that tally then the 196 points would result in a finish akin to Mike Evans 20th-ranked finish in 2017.

Allen Robinson is already repping Chicago

What does it mean? Robinson should be drafted as a low-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver. Round 5 in non-PPR and late Round 4 in PPR formats should do the trick.

If he goes before then, its because someones buying into him being closer to that 2015 form that put him on the Fantasy map in the first place. Just remember, hes had a down year, an ACL tear and a new contract from a new team since then. Given those facts, it might be too big a leap of faith to count on a huge year for Robinson.

Dave Richard has spent nearly his entire career covering the National Football League. Beginning with at the boom of the Internet, Richard was that sites first Fantasy Football writer before transitioning… Full Bio

Allen Robinson is on his way to Chicago, but another Jaguars wide receiver will be staying in Jacksonville.

According to multiple reports, Marqise Lee will sign a new deal with the Jaguars ahead of the official start of free agency on Wednesday.

Lee joined Robinson as a second-round pick in 2014 and got off to a slower start than his teammate while missing nine games over his first two seasons. Lee’s productivity has picked up over the last two years, however, and he led the team with 56 catches during the 2017 season. He added seven catches for 69 yards in the postseason.

Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole and Allen Hurns are also under contract at receiver for the Jaguars,

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